Friday, March 28, 2008

AL North


Season 7 finish: 91-71 (1st), 0 GB. 1035 runs scored, 821 runs allowed.
Season 8 payroll: $69m budgeted, $66.8m spent.
Infield

There are no recent All-Stars among this group (1B Albie Fernandez was in S2) but there are no significant weaknesses and a lot of strengths. C Stephen Diaz is no defensive whiz but his offensive ability is unquestioned, and he has a good all-around backup Trace Campbell. Returning infielders Fernandez, 2B Benji Paniagua and SS Pascual Aquino are joined by 3B Kirk Boucher, brought over in a preseason trade with Colorado Springs for SP Omar Delgado. Last season’s starter at third base, Vinny Leskanic, is a quality backup at all positions, infield or outfield. The pitching staff will be happy to have this group behind them. And it’s only going to get better: Season 5 No. 1 pick Norm Brooks – the fifth pick overall -- has been tearing up the minor leagues and may well be in the majors before the season is out.

RATING: 7.

Outfield

All-Star CF Rudy Lesher can field, hit and run. ‘Nuff said. The guys to either side of him – LF Quentin Clark and RF Desi Castillo – are OK. Clark probably would be better off at 1B but he hasn’t embarrassed himself or the team in left; Castillo is listed as a third baseman and would be better suited to a backup role, which has been his history.

RATING: 5.5.

Starting Pitching

This much talent should be outlawed. Are you kidding me? OK, maybe a slight exaggeration, but when there is a fifth starter – Alan McDowell – who goes 17-13 in his first full season at age 23 there is little doubt that pitching is a team strength. Yes, Omar Delgado (14-11) was traded for Boucher, but in his place is Terry Delaney, acquired in preseason from Tampa Bay at a cost of two former 1st-round picks. Add to that Rookie of the Year Darrell Starr (19-7), 35-year-old Hector Caballero (13-6) showing almost no sign of decline, and serviceable Omar Montgomery (8-11), and you have a shot day-in, day-out to win every game.

RATING: 9.

Bullpen

The seven-man bullpen is OK but doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Louis Kent has the title of closer, yet RHS Del James actually had more saves last season, 18 vs. 13. That might be a good thing: Kent’s OAV was .313. Still, they were a combined 31 for 36 in save opportunities. Not bad. This might be the one area of the team that could use an upgrade before the end of the season.

RATING: 4.

Overall

There is no reason the Patriots shouldn’t win its third straight division title. But in both of the past two seasons it was knocked out in the first round by a lower-seeded team. Getting to the next step will determine whether fans cheer or boo. Prediction: 93-69, 1st place.




Season 7 finish: 84-78 (2nd), 7 GB. 975 runs scored, 982 runs allowed.
Season 8 payroll: $64m budgeted, $57.4m spent.
Infield

Four of the five IF starters have been All-Stars and the only one who hasn’t been is 24-year-old first baseman Arthur Robbins, who is good and getting better. 2B Brian Stearns, also 24, was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner last season; 3B Todd Miller, 26, was an All-Star the year before. C Bill Sheffield is a four-time All-Star and ROY in Season 2. He’s an offensive powerhouse, able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, but his kryptonite is a pitch-calling rating under 30 and below-average range and arm. But the only real weak link here is SS Donnie Hanson. a three-time All-Star but now 34 and in deep decline. Despite his $7m salary, it won’t be surprising to see him on the pine by season’s end.

RATING: 8.

Outfield

Angels in the Outfield? Uh, no. Two current starters, CF Bernie Hammond and RF Rudy Hume, were signed as free agents in the off-season and LF Kennie James was acquired during the season last year. They might provide some offense. They’d better, because they surely won’t provide the pitching staff much help in the field. Last season’s starter in center, Abraham Harper, is currently on the bench. They might change during the season, either because of pitcher revolt or a trade. There doesn’t appear to be any help available in AAA.

RATING: 3.5.

Starting Pitching

The Minnesota fans are excited about this group, at least the front of the rotation. Three-time All-Star Fonzie Bailey, although 33, is a stud – 51-18 in his three seasons with the Twins. Then there’s the buzz over Season 6 International FA Andres Andujar, who is entering his first full ML season but already has 28 ML starts under his belt. The team is looking for a big payoff for this one-time $16.5m bonus baby. Hayes Battle was brought in from the Boston Liberators in preseason for last season’s No. 1 pick, Graham Faulk. Young flamethrower Vinny Jones and walk-prone Francis (Scott?) Key round out the rotation.

RATING: 7.

Bullpen

Six of the seven members of the bullpen are holdovers from Season 7, including 37-year-old closer Sam Kennedy. The only newcomer is 23-year-old rookie Vladimir Johnson, a Season 3 International FA signing ($3.8m). Johnson looks to have the makings of a future closer if he’s able to avoid the injury bug (sub-30 health rating). All in all, it’s a solid but unspectacular group. RATING: 5.

Overall

There is a lot to like about this team. It has a lot of talent in key places and its budget is low with room to bring in help if it becomes available. But the defense is scary and that will likely undercut the effectiveness of the pitching staff. Still, the future is bright in Minnesota, although Toronto is close on its heels. Prediction: 84-78, 2nd place.




Season 7 finish: 77-85 (3rd), 14 GB. 928 runs scored, 950 runs allowed.
Season 8 payroll: $93m budgeted, $91.8m spent.
Infield

Around the infield, the Jays have a solid but aging group. There are questions at the corners and at DH, but the middle is well-manned. SS Anthony Reagan, a former All-Star (S6), is a lifetime .302 hitter with speed and sure hands. 2B Delino Samuel is similar: .322 lifetime hitter but less speed. Both are 33 now, though, and in ratings decline. Season 7 3B Jaret Porter, the youngest IF starter last season, was released and is now in Washington. First and third base positions will be filled by some combination of the J Boys: James Sasaki, Jesse Morris, Joey Simmons. Sasaki appears capable of fulltime action at 3B, while last season Morris and Simmons started a combined 148 games at 1B and 101 in CF. Longtime Helena catcher J.P. Villafuerte was recently acquired to handle most of the action behind the plate.

RATING: 6.

Outfield

You can’t get much better than the Jays’ corner outfielders, five-time All-Star and S4 MVP Flash Dillon in RF and two-time All-Star David Rosado in LF. Barring injury, just put ‘em down for 162 very productive games. The only other OF listed on the roster is CF Ronnie Andrews who oddly took on most of the DH duty last season. With Morris’ and Simmons’ declining range, it’s likely Andrews will get more time in center this season.

RATING: 8.

Starting Pitching

While there is a lot of age among the position players, that’s not true of the starting pitchers. All of them are under 30; three of them are 25 or younger. Doug Bartee and Brian Nielsen lead the way. They were a combined 28-16 last season, gobbling up 450 innings. Bartee is a former All-Star (S5) and Nielsen was the No. 1 pick in Season 4. Eugene Coleman, the team’s No. 1 pick in S3, was 11-12 in his first full season last year and has a nice upside. The back-end of the rotation falls off quite a bit, with rookie Juan Ramirez and Dwight McCartin. Ramirez has talent but he also has control issues, while McCartin, well, just has issues. His stat history, though, shows that he performs better as a starter than out of the bullpen, but when Fausto Uribe comes off the Disabled List don’t be surprised to see McCartin put out to pasture.

RATING: 6.5.

Bullpen

Houston, we have a problem. Or we could go with a patchwork-quilt metaphor. In any case stud closer Paul Watson – and he is a stud – might be tempted to dial 911 himself sometime this season to get some help. Now 33 but only showing the smallest hint of a decline, Watson was an All-Star in Seasons 4-5-6. He’s only blown nine saves in the past three seasons; many closers accomplish that in one. There are seven others in the ‘pen as the GM has tried to retool this problem area. Returning RPs Bobby Piatt, Milt Wohlers and Yamid Beltran all had OAVs in the .280s last season. The rest of the cast includes a 38-year-old free agent, two others who have been bouncing between the majors and minors for a while and a 25-year-old rookie.

RATING: 3.5.

Overall

The bullpen is the drag on this team but it’s also the area that can be more easily addressed during a season. That’s the hope. The rest of the team is solid, in some places spectacular. And while the team’s record has been falling since Season 5 – division winner in S5, wild card in S6 – a rebound is likely this season, maybe playoff contention if things break right. Prediction: 82-80, 3rd place.




Season 7 finish: 72-90 (4th), 19 GB. 905 runs scored, 1100 runs allowed.
Season 8 payroll: $94m budgeted, $73.5m spent.
Infield

Behind the plate and on the right side of the infield, the BBQs have a remarkably talented group. Season 6 MVP and three-time All-Star 1B Stuffy Stewart already has 275 HRs in nearly five full ML seasons. C Ernie Robinson, a Season 3 1st round pick, hit 49 HRs in just his first full ML season in S7. Then there are four listed second basemen – veterans Ted Jameson and Ivan Ayala, and young studs Bud Brumfield and Bill Butler who just arrived in the majors last season. All four have to play somewhere. The left side, by comparison, is weak but it’s not bad. 3B Phil Daly was an All-Star last season. The problem is shortstop. Benji Ramirez can field the position but his offense is almost nonexistent and last season he served mostly as a backup, playing in just 55 games. Aging backup 3B Carl Badilla started 79 games there last season, and with his range now below 60, if that happens again opposing hitters might have a field day.

RATING: 8.

Outfield

There are only three outfielders listed on the roster: veteran OF Vic Sager who played 162 games in both S6 and S7 but is now 31, young CF Wayne Nathan who can field but can’t hit, and backup LF Gill Hernandez who is just thankful to have a ML job. CF Pepper Oliver had his option declined. So that means that somehow, some way, the extra second basemen are sure to spend a lot of time patrolling the green grass of Kauffman Stadium. Brumfield, in particular, has the ratings to cover centerfield. For grading purposes, it’s assumed Sager will get IF help. RATING: 7.

Starting Pitching

The barbecue won’t be the only tasty item in KC this season; opposing hitters will be licking their chops when they face these five starters. Returning starters Howard Taylor, Stephen Hume, Houston Darwin and S7 Rule V pick David Lee accounted for 120 starts, going a combined 35-52, with OAVs ranging from .294 to .335. No wonder KC had the second worst team ERA in the league last season at 6.45. Joel Black, who showed an ability to eat up innings in his four ML seasons, was brought in as a free agent from Sacramento to strengthen the starting corps, but how much help can one guy provide? It wouldn’t be surprising to see Season 5 No. 1 pick Andrew Kingsdale, beginning his first season in AAA, show up in the majors by season’s end. He’ll have control issues but still should be able to help the ML staff eventually.

RATING: 3.

Bullpen

The six-man bullpen has problems similar to the starting rotation, but closer Wesley Barnes has proven to be generally reliable. He was 14 of 18 in save opps last season with a .256 OAV and 1.28 WHIP. He was an All-Star in Season 5. Only one of the five other returning relievers had an OAV under .300. Another RP, Jose Barajas, is currently a free agent. He had 111 IP and it’s hard to see how his innings will be picked up.

RATING: 3.5.

Overall

There is some terrific offensive and defensive talent on this team, although it remains to be seen how well it will mesh. A lot of runs will have to be scored to overcome a weak pitching staff. There’s a lot of room in the budget so help might arrive sometime during the season. Looking ahead, Season 6 1st round stud Stuffy Grace is the long-term answer at SS but he’s just beginning his first season at AA. Prediction: 73-89, 4th place.

1 Comment:

Psuedonym said...

Wow, terrific analysis in my opinion and well tempered. I tended to agree with most every rating and prediction. Thanks again!

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